Atlanta Braves’ Rotation Gamble Looks Smart, But October Will Tell the Story

Atlanta Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos made a big bet on his roster when he went small on starting pitcher acquisitions at the MLB trade deadline early this month.

Starters were flying off the shelves left and right to contenders in what became a major buyers’ market.

The expectation was that the Braves would add multiple starters to bolster a rotation which has relied heavily on ace Chris Sale this season.

And yet, Atlanta added just one starter ahead of the deadline in right-hander Tyler Mahle from the San Francisco Giants.

The early returns have been strong on this decision.

In his first two starts with the Braves, Mahle has allowed one run on seven hits over 12 innings (six per start) with 16 strikeouts and two walks.

Crafty veteran southpaw Martin Perez has allowed no runs in 16 innings across three August starts. Even though his fastball this season has averaged 89.9 mph, his ERA is down to 2.96 over 106 1/3 innings -- not bad for a player on a one-year, $3.5 million contract.

Grant Holmes, one of the rotation arms who could have been demoted to a lesser role if the Braves went bigger at the deadline, has allowed no runs over 12 innings in two August starts, perhaps buoyed by the front office’s faith in him.

The early returns on this bold decision by Anthopoulos look strong. The Braves are 18-8 since the All-Star break and 6-3 since the trade deadline. A once-large National League East division lead which had shrunk as small as two games is now back up to 9.5 games as the Phillies have returned to orbit from their sky-high May and June.

The division no longer seems at risk. The Braves will return to the postseason and, save for an utter disaster, will end Philadelphia’s two-year run atop the NL East.

But the desire for the Braves to make pitching moves wasn’t about just making the postseason. It was about making noise when they get there.

Since Atlanta won the 2021 World Series, they’ve lost their last three playoff series.

Beyond Sale, who continues to defy Father Time by being one of the best pitchers in baseball at 37 years old, there are still legitimate concerns about how Atlanta’s rotation stacks up in the postseason against the NL’s other contending teams like the Dodgers, Brewers, Phillies and even the Cubs, who added three starters at the deadline.

Through two starts, Mahle has looked like a potential No. 2 option. Maybe Perez can continue to defy expectations and excel as he has pretty much all season.

AJ Smith-Shawver, who has pitched in the majors just once this season after returning from Tommy John surgery but has excelled in Triple-A lately, could establish himself, while Spencer Schwellenbach, who still hasn’t pitched this season, is looking doubtful as an option.

Anthopoulos has earned a modicum of inherent trust. He pushed basically all the right buttons at the 2021 deadline to help the Braves win it all.

But there remains a lot of rotation uncertainty come October for a team that otherwise seems poised to be a major contender.